Hey everybody. I’m back again for Week 14 of the NFL season and I hope everyone had a profitable Week 13. Looking back at my picks from Week 13, it was an up and down slate. My first quarterback mention was great again with Stafford putting up 27.84 DK points. Hopefully you were off Brees in cash because he somehow failed miserably. Tyrod Taylor had a poor outing and I don’t even have to mention how horrible Kaepernick was.
My first mention at running back was phenomenal this week as Jordan Howard carried the ball 32 times and scored 32.7 DK points on 3 touchdowns, once again showing how bad the 49ers run defense is. Riddick and Hill were both underwhelming even though they scored a touchdown with only 12 DK points.
At receiver, my picks were on the low owned side and none of them did anything too special. Cooks and Moncrief both were fine with 12 and 14 DK points, but Watkins struggled against the Raiders catching only 3 balls on 9 targets. I actually got off of him once I realized he had moved to more of a chalkier option when Sunday rolled around, always have to be aware of those things.
Both my tight end picks played well with Kelce scoring 25 DK points and Fleener had 13.6. At defense, we had the one game a year where Flacco goes nuts and he shredded the Dolphins, who scored 0 DK points. The Packers were a solid play with 8 DK points.
If you’re still waiting on that big score, I’m here to help throw some ideas at ya. Here are the guys I have my eye on in Week 14.
NO - Drew Brees ($7400) - A lot of people will jump ship on Drew Brees after his poor outing last week. He wasn’t great by any means, but he still had a 67% completion percentage and threw for 326 yards and threw an end game meaningless interception for his third of the game. The problem was he didn’t throw a touchdown for the first time in a game this season. I’m going to chalk that up to randomness and an outlier and roster Brees this week hoping he turns the ship around. Although we’d rather roster him at home, he’s still going against a Bucs pass defense that allows the third highest yards per attempt at 7.8, has allowed the third most pass plays of 20+ yards and the most pass plays of over 40 yards with 13 (just over 1 per game). This game also could shootout as it has the highest o/u on the slate at 51.
*Cash* TB – Jameis Winston ($6700) – Jameis is going to be a popular pick this week given his matchup with the Saints who rank 25th in DK points to quarterbacks. The Saints haven’t been the worst pass defense in the league like in years past, but they’re still a bottom seven defense in most statistics. Winston has been over 16 DK points in his last seven games and it looks like he should be able to do that this week as well. Like I mentioned earlier, this game has the highest o/u at 51, but the Bucs have the highest implied team total on the slate with 26.75.
*Tournament* WAS - Kirk Cousins ($6300) – I think Kirk Cousins will be overlooked this week since he’s on the road facing a division opponent who ranks 13th in DK points to quarterbacks. I’m going to load up on him this week as he’s someone who possesses an absurdly high ceiling given Washington’s style of offense and I think the Eagles have a solid chance of putting up points here as well. He’s went over 18 DK points in seven straight games and has went over 25 in four of his last six games including two games with 30+ points. The Eagles have allowed the most pass plays of over 20 yards (almost 4 per game) in the NFL and have allowed the third most pass plays of over 40 yards.
Other quarterbacks I like include Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers.
*Tournament* HOU - Lamar Miller ($5100) – Given his current health status, Lamar Miller is a tournament play only. He’s facing the Colts in the indoor stadium and the last time he faced this team he went off for 35.8 DK points. The Colts rank 31st in rush defense DVOA and if Miller can stay healthy in this one, I like his upside given his extremely cheap price tag of $5100.
CIN – Jeremy Hill ($5800) - Hill will be facing the Cleveland Browns and we all know how bad they are. They rank 29th in rush defense DVOA and allow the fifth highest yards per carry in the NFL. The Bengals should be comfortably ahead in this one as they’re 5.5 point favorites. Hill got a ton of usage last week with Gio out and this week should be no different. At $5800 you’re getting a guy who should touch the ball 18 times and give you some salary space to be able to roster one of the top running backs this week.
NYJ - Matt Forte ($6800) – Forte gets the dream matchup this week against the 49ers. The 49ers run defense ranks last in rush defense DVOA on footballoutsiders and for good reason. They rank last in the league in the following categories: attempts per game, yards per carry, yards per game, runs of 20+ yards, runs of 40+ yards and rushing touchdowns. Those stats aren’t even that close to the next closest team. They’re far and away the worst rush defense in the league and also allow the most points in the league at 30.8. Jordan Howard torched them last week for 32.7 DK points and Matt Forte should eat this week, especially after the Colts embarrassed them on Monday Night Football. I think they get back to running the football and Forte should be heavily involved.
Other running backs I like include David Johnson, LeVeon Bell, LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles.
DEN – Emmanuel Sanders ($5700) – Sanders will be facing some of the worst corners in the league when the Broncos travel to Tennessee this weekend. Tennessee ranks 24th in pass defense DVOA, and 31st in DK points to wide receivers. They allow the third and fourth most plays of 20 and 40 yards in the NFL, which is a key to Sanders high upside. He’s averaged nearly 10 targets a game over his last 5 games including a 32 point outburst against the Chiefs. Love me some Manny Sanders this week.
*Tournament* GB - Jordy Nelson ($6800) – Jordy is going to be low owned this week given his matchup versus the Seahawks, which is why he’s a tournament only play for me. I’m definitely going to have more exposure than his ownership percentage because at $6800 he possesses an upside that others in his price range don’t. He’s seen over 10 targets in four of his last five games and also has been over 28 DK points in two of his last four.
*Tournament* JAC Allen Robinson ($5000) – Another tournament play that should be very low owned. Allen Robinson being $5000 seems insane to me given he was at $8300 to start the year. He’s going against Xavier Rhodes of the Vikings this week, who I realize is a top 10 corner in the league (btw I’m a Vikings fan). The Vikings just lost arguably their best defensive player in free safety Harrison Smith, who obviously helps a ton on the back end of the pass defense. Robinson saw 10 targets last week against Denver so Blake Bortles isn’t afraid to go to him in a tough matchup. With his upside, mixed with a $5000 price tag, I’m very intrigued this week to be contrarian and roster Allen Robinson.
Other wide receivers I like include DeSean Jackson, TY Hilton, Michael Thomas, Demaryius Thomas and Tyrell Williams.
The chalk here is going to be Ladarius Green after he went off last week and still only costs $3900. I won’t mention him below, but he’s obviously a good play this week. Also, Dwayne Allen at $2600 should draw a lot of ownership after his 3 touchdown performance in primetime, but I might fade him given he only saw 4 targets in that game.
HOU - C.J. Fiedorowicz ($3900) – If I’m looking to pivot off of Green this week, I’m going to Fiedorowicz at the same price point. He’s seen at least seven targets in six of his last eight games including 9 last week, which is pretty dang consistent and impressive. He’s facing the Colts this week who rank 23rd in DK points to tight ends are dead last in DVOA against tight ends so the opportunity should definitely be there for C.J. this week.
PHI - Zach Ertz ($4900) - Ertz will be at home this week facing Washington who rank 28th in DVOA against tight ends. The middle of their defense just isn’t good against receiving threats and look for Carson Wentz to target Ertz and Matthews in the middle of the field early and often. He’s been one of the most heavily targeted tight ends over the last 5 games averaging 9.4 targets a game, including 15 in his last game. Love Ertz this week.
Other tight ends I like include Delanie Walker, Cameron Brate and Jimmy Graham.
Arizona Cardinals ($3200) - The Miami Dolphins offensive line has the 6th highest adjusted sack rate on FootballOutsiders and the Cardinals defense has the 9th highest adjusted sack rate, meaning there should be plenty of pressure on Tannehill in this one. Pressure in theory leads to turnovers and with a volatile position like defense, that’s what I look for. The Cardinals also know they need to win their last 4 games to have a chance at the playoffs.
Detroit Lions ($3600) - The Lions defense has been surprisingly good the last few weeks. They held the offensive machine in Drew Brees to only 13 points last week. They’ve held their last 6 opponents to 20 points or less, which is pretty impressive. They’ll be highly owned this week, playing at home versus the Bears and Matt Barkley. If you want reason to fade a highly owned defense, although they’ve held their opponents to low scores, they only have 1 sack in their last three games. Fading the highest owned defense can work, given how volatile defensive scoring is on DK and I might do that with the Lions this week, but there’s no debating they’re a solid play.
Thanks again and follow me on Twitter! @Keagan28