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The DFS Accountant - Week 13

Week 13 Picks

Hey everybody, I’m back again for Week 13 of the NFL season and I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. It’s time to get back on the regular grind that is NFL DFS for these last few weeks. If you’re still waiting on that big score, I’m here to help throw some ideas at ya.

Here are the guys I have my eye on in Week 13.


Quarterbacks

*Cash* DET - Matt Stafford ($7000) - It’s hard to go wrong with Stafford this week going against the Saints in the Superdome. This game will most likely turn into a shootout with the o/u at an absurd 53.5. The Saints are the 25th ranked pass defense DVOA and Drew Brees is bound to shred the Lions defense, forcing the Lions to keep up. The Saints are allowed the 5th most yards per pass attempt and the 6th most yards per game at 271.

BUF – Tyrod Taylor ($5700) – Tyrod has quietly been a solid fantasy quarterback this year. He’s scored over 20 DK points in 4 of his last 6 and has averaged 45 yards on the ground in his last 6 games. He’s going against Oakland this week in another high scoring game with the o/u at 48. Oakland has the 22nd ranked pass defense DVOA and 27th rush DVOA so it’s certainly a matchup Taylor can take advantage of. Oh and he has Sammy Watkins back and he finally looks healthy. Worth noting the Raiders have given up the most 40+ yard pass plays all year with 13 and the second most pass plays of 20 yards. Love me some low owned Tyrod/Sammy stacks this week.

SF - Colin Kaepernick ($6100) – Kaepernick has been another quarterback who’s been much better than people seem to realize. In his 6 starts he’s averaged 23.6 DK points and hasn’t been below 16.1. He flashed the upside last week going for 37.1 points thanks to 113 yards on the ground. He’s averaging 62 yards on the ground and he’s definitely cash game viable this week against the Bears defense who just lost another defender in Danny Travethan. Chicago is in the middle of the pack in terms of pass defense ranks and DK points to quarterbacks, but they’re a beat up team with nothing to play for at this point.

Other quarterbacks I like include Drew Brees (obviously), Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning.

Running Backs

CHI – Jordan Howard ($6900) – In that same game as Kaepernick, Howard has arguably the best matchup of the week. He’s a home favorite against the worst run defense in the league. The 49ers are allowing a league worst 5.1 ypc and 171 yards on the ground per game which is 30 yards worse than the next team. They’ve also allowed the most 20+ and 40+ run plays in the league. Basically they’re terrible against running backs and Jordan Howard has been solid this year and has flashed the upside against the Vikings when he went for 33 DK points.

CIN – Jeremy Hill ($4300) - Jeremy Hill is just too cheap this week. He’s at home vs the Eagles in what should be a close game. With Gio Bernard out, Hill dominated the touches last week running a season high 23 routes, catching 6 balls (career high) for 61 yards. If he’s going to get over 5 targets in a game, mixed with his rushing workload and touchdown upside at $4300, he makes for a solid play this week regardless of the matchup. The Eagles are in the middle of the road in terms of rush defense statistics, but they’re nothing I’d be too concerned with.

DET – Theo Riddick ($5800) – Riddick is going to be very heavily owned this week, but I don’t see much of a reason to fade him. He’s in the dome vs New Orleans who is nearly guaranteed to score a ton of points. Riddick regularly sees over 6 targets a game and should get around 10 carries. This game should see plenty of touchdowns and Riddick has as good a chance of anyone to see the end zone multiple times. Also, worth noting the Saints are dead last in pass defense DVOA against opposing running backs.

Other running backs I like include David Johnson, LeVeon Bell, Devontae Booker, Carlos Hyde and Spencer Ware.

Wide Receivers

*Tournament* NO – Brandin Cooks ($6400) – I can’t get a good feel whether Cooks will be heavily owned or not. He put up an absolute DUD last week with 0 targets, while Michael Thomas shredded the Rams. I think most people will migrate to Thomas again this week or the cheaper option in Willie Snead. Fleener and Mark Ingram should take some ownership away from him as well. That’s exactly why I want to jump on him now. He’s only gone one game in his entire career with less than 3 catches besides Sunday, so it was most likely just a random outlier. He’s shown tremendous upside in the Superdome and in a high scoring game, I’ll take my chances with a guy that can score a 90 yard touchdown at any moment.

*Tournament* BUF - Sammy Watkins - ($5500) – Watkins played on 45% of the snaps last week in his first week back and caught 3 balls for 80 yards. He’s supposed to get bumped up to around 60% of the snaps this week and it wouldn’t shock me if it were more. He’s got a great matchup against the Oakland Raiders this week who have allowed the second most/most pass plays of at least 20 and 40 yards meaning the big plays are definitely there. He’s a tournament play only, but at just $5500 he has a ton of upside.

IND - Donte Moncrief ($6600) – Moncrief has now caught a touchdown in 4 consecutive games and gets a fantastic matchup against the Jets this week. You’ll have to be playing a slate with access to the Monday night game to roster him. The Jets are 31st ranked in pass defense DVOA to #2 receivers and have an overall pass defense ranked 29th. What really kills the Colts offense is a team that gets after the passer since their offensive line is awful. Good news is the Jets have the second fewest sacks in the league and don’t get after the passer all that much. Luck should eat lots of invisible cereal this week with Moncrief being a big beneficiary of it.

Other wide receivers I like include Marquess Wilson, all of the Lions/Saints pass catchers and if you’re looking for monster savings: Dorial Green-Beckham

TIGHT END

KC - Travis Kelce - ($4700) – Kelce is my favorite tight end on the week. He’s not too expensive and should see a ton of work going against the Falcons in the dome. The Falcons rank 27th in DK points to tight ends and Kelce has scored over 20 in his last two games.

NO - Coby Fleener - ($3500) - Fleener is bound to be heavily owned this week with a cheap price tag and an awesome matchup. He’s going against the Lions who give up the second most points to tight ends and rank dead last in DVOA against tight ends. Load up on this game and win all the money.

Other tight ends I like include Eric Ebron and Tyler Eifert.

Defenses/Special Teams

Green Bay Packers ($2900) - The Packers are not a good defense, but they are at home this week vs Brock Osweiler. They played much better in the second half last week on the road in Philly with Randall back and only gave up 13 points with 4 sacks and an interception.

Miami Dolphins ($2600) - At only $2600, the Dolphins are cheap option I like this week going against Baltimore. They’ve scored 13, 17, 7 and 6 in their last 4 games and they’re not facing any sort of offensive juggernaut this week. Across the industry, projections have them as around the 3rd highest scoring defense, despite being priced as a bottom 10 defense.

Thanks again and follow me on Twitter! @Keagan28

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