Week 11 Picks
Hey everybody, I’m back again for Week 11 of the NFL season and I hope everyone had a great Week 10! Only a few more weeks to hit a big score so good luck to everyone moving forward!
Looking back at my picks last week, I nailed my first quarterback selection again with Marcus Mariota. He put on a show against the Packers and scored 28.6 DK points. Roethlisberger was even better with 31.4 points, while Tom Brady disappointed by throwing 0 touchdowns (several PI penalties in the end zone led to an absurd day for Blount). For us non-Blount owners, how tilting was that?
The running back picks weren’t quite as good, unfortunately. Everyone was on DJ and Zek and for good reason, which is why I don’t include guys like that in this article. Instead I wrote up Melvin Gordonand Jay Ajayi, pointing to reasons why they could be good pivots. Gordon ended up with 18.2 DK points which certainly won’t kill you, but his ceiling was limited by not scoring. He did post 5 catches for 62 yards on 8 targets to go along with his usual inefficient carries. He was also stuffed inside the 5 yard line several times. Ajayi was a much bigger disappointment posting only 9 DK points in a game where the Chargers got out to an early lead and a backup named Damien Williams vultured 2 touchdowns from him. Chris Ivory was strictly a tournament play only. I thought the Jaguars had a decent chance to get a lead on Houston lending more carries to Ivory, which was far from the case as they were slightly down the entire time.
At receiver, Julio Jones was around 8% owned across the industry. Whenever he’s under 10% I do my best to roster him, but unfortunately Antonio Brown went off this week at a much higher ownership and a cheaper price tag (we did call a Mike Evans bust, which certainly helped Julio owners). Still, Julio had 10 catches for 135 yards and a solid outing again. Demaryius Thomas was around 6-7% and had another solid game catching 8 passes for 87 yards and a touchdown. He’s now seen 10+ targets in 5 straight games. I was writing up Stefon Diggs, but changed it to Cordarrelle Patterson because I wanted to mention a guy below 4k I liked for tournaments. Diggs was obviously the call here as he went off again and I did have him mentioned as another guy I liked. Patterson saw only 4 targets this week and after watching the game it was clear that Bradford was staring at Diggs every play as Diggs was dominating his matchup versus Fuller.
My biggest killer this week was Lance Kendricks at tight end. He only had 1 target this week after seeing 8, 9 and 12 the previous three weeks. Ertz had a solid game, but unfortunately couldn’t find the endzone after catching 6 balls for 55 yards. At defense, both of the picks ended up giving you decent production with the Cardinals going for 6 points and the Rams at 10.
We’ll try to do better this week and keep it rolling. Here are the guys I have my eye on in Week 11.
*Cash* WAS - Kirk Cousins ($5800) - Cousins is underpriced this week in my opinion. He’s the 14th ranked quarterback in terms of price, but most sites have him projected as the 4th-8th quarterback this week in DK points. He’s at home facing a Packers team that ranks 18th in pass defense DVOA and rank as the 3rd worst defense in yards per attempt. They’ve also given up the 4th most passing touchdowns this season with 19. Vegas also sees this as a high scoring game with an o/u at 50.5 points with Washington as a 2.5 point favorite.
TEN – Marcus Mariota ($6700) – Does it not feel like Mariota throws 4 touchdowns nearly every other game at this point? He did it again last week and he has a chance to do it again when he faces the Colts defense in their indoor stadium. The Colts are an awful defense as they rank in the bottom five in passing yards per game, pass defense DVOA, run defense DVOA and DK points to quarterbacks. This game has the highest o/u on the main slate at 52 points and it should definitely be a shootout. Pairing him with Walker and bringing it back with Hilton will be one of my favorite plays on the week.
IND- Andrew Luck ($7200) – Did I mention a shootout? Luck is at home this week and will be forced to carry the team once again. The Titans have their holes on the defensive side of the ball as well as they rank 22nd in DK points to quarterbacks and 26th in pass defense DVOA. The last time these two teams faced off, Luck went for 30.8 DK points.
Other quarterbacks I like include Russell Wilson, Matt Stafford and Blake Bortles.
A lot of people will be looking to C.J. Prosise, who at $4200 is a great play with a cheap price tag. Also, LeVeon Bell will certainly dominate ownership again this week facing the Browns.
*Tournament* LARM – Todd Gurley ($5000) – Todd Gurley is the same price as Frank Gore. Let that sink in for a moment. Gurley has had a rough season, but he’s bound to break out at some point and for $5000 I’m certainly intrigued this week. With this being Jared Goff’s first start, the Rams could lean even more on Gurley. He’s at home facing the Miami Dolphins who are a decent opponent, but nothing to completely avoid. The Dolphins defense gives up the third most yards per carry in the league at 4.4 and they’ve given up 9 runs of 20+ yards, which is the second most behind the 49ers terrible run d. Gurley has a chance to finally break out this week and I’d rather not be late to the party.
TEN – DeMarco Murray ($8200) - The Colts have a bottom 5 defense in nearly every statistic I could throw at you. They’re the worst in run defense DVOA and 2nd to worst in yards per carry. I think he’s a good pivot this week from LeVeon Bell as an option that can get you the same amount of points with less ownership and a cheaper price tag.
*Tournament* KC – Spencer Ware ($6000) – I think a lot of people will forget about Spencer Ware this week with several other intriguing options. Ware has shown a 30 point ceiling twice this season and he finally appears to be fully healthy. He’s at home this week as 7.5 point favorites facing the Buccaneers. The Bucs are a middle of the road defense and the return of Gerald McCoy will scare a lot of people away from Ware. Ware has averaged over 4.5 yards a carry in 7 of the 9 contests so far this season. He’s a tournament play for me, but with his skill set and a high team total of 26 I think he’s a good one.
Other running backs I like include David Johnson, Theo Riddick, Rashad Jennings and LeSean McCoy.
NE – Julian Edelman ($6300) – Great pivot this week as everyone will be on Blount and Bennett. Edelman has yet to have a big game this season as he’s been on the wrong side of touchdown variance. He’s still seeing targets with 10, 8, and 9 in his last three games. With Gronk out, Brady should be more focused on Edelman as he shreds the 49ers “defense”. The fast pace of the 49ers, their awful defense and Tom Brady being a machine all lend itself to Edelman having a solid game as long as Blount doesn’t score four, 1 yard touchdowns.
GB - Davante Adams - ($6700) – In one of the higher scoring games on the slate, the Packers are in desperation mode to get back to their winning ways. They’ll face a secondary that has Josh Norman playing as well as any corner in the league, but they really struggle vs the opposing team’s other receivers. Against #2 receivers, Washington ranks dead last in DVOA. Adams is seeing an absurd amount of targets the last few weeks, averaging nearly 12 in the last 4 weeks.
DET - Golden Tate ($5300) – The Lions currently have a team implied total of 26.75 in a game that should be high scoring versus the Jaguars at home. Stafford has been fantastic this season and faces a middle of the road defense at home. Tate has seen over 9 targets in his last 4 games and should easily get there again. I like the Jaguars in this spot as well, which should force the Lions to keep their foot on the gas.
Other wide receivers I like include T.Y. Hilton, Allen Hurns, Eli Rogers and Sterling Shephard.
*Tournament* WAS - Jordan Reed - ($5900) – One of my favorite games this week is this one. Aaron Rodgers is usually a stud on Sunday night football and if you haven’t seen those splits I suggest you take a look. This should lend itself to a high scoring game with plenty of passes being thrown to one of the best tight ends in the league. Green Bay is much worse against the pass, which lends itself perfectly to the Redskins pass heavy offense. His bad game last week against a good Vikings defense should have some people looking elsewhere, which makes this a fantastic tournament play with tons of upside.
CHI - Zach Miller ($3800) - Miller is a great pivot for people who want to fade Martellus Bennett this week. Julius Thomas is another guy I like this week that I’ll be playing in tournaments to pivot from Bennett. With Alshon Jeffery down, Cutler is going to have a reduced number of targets to throw to and he usually looks to Miller as he doesn’t seem to have the chemistry with Cameron Meredith. Miller has seen 10 and 7 targets with Cutler at the helm the past two weeks and I like him to see 10 again this week against a Giants team that ranks 20th in DK points to tight ends.
Other tight ends I like include Delanie Walker, Julius Thomas and Jason Witten.
*Tournament* Buffalo Bills ($2700) - According to FootballOutsiders pass rush statistics, the Bills have the highest adjusted sack rate in the NFL. The Bills are coming off a bye and are facing the Bengals. Again, going off of FootballOutsiders offensive line metrics, the Bengals have allowed the highest sack rate in the NFL. Seems like a solid recipe for potential sacks and turnovers to me and for $2700 with low ownership, I love it.
LA Rams ($3100) - A lot of people may be on the opposite side of this one, going with the Dolphins facing a rookie quarterback’s first start. I like the Rams this week as a solid tournament play at home facing the Dolphins. The Rams have given up under 17 points in three straight weeks and have scored 6, 8 and 10 DK points the last three weeks. Also a nice correlation play if you believe Todd Gurley breaks out.
Thanks again and follow me on Twitter! @Keagan28