Week 10 Picks
Hey everybody, I’m back again for Week 10 of the NFL season and I hope everyone had a great Week 9!
Did quite well with the picks last week starting at the quarterback position and Dak Prescott and Colin Kaepernick. Newton was once again disappointing with his second straight game under 15 DK points. He’s going to break out, it’s just a matter of when. Zek was the obvious play at running back and he didn’t disappoint, running for 2 touchdowns against the Browns. When I wrote the Week 9 article, it looked like Carlos Hyde was going to play but he was later ruled out. Sunday morning it was announced that DuJuan Harris would be the main ball carrier and I hope you caught wind of it before the 1pm starts because he went off against the Saints. Always important to stay on top of news for that reason. At receiver, my tournament mention was Mike Wallace and he ended up scoring on the Ravens longest touchdown in franchise history. When the news came out that Steve Smith was going to be playing I couldn’t have been more happy because I knew tons of people would bail on Wallace. I took a few more shares of him after the news and it definitely paid off. Unfortunately, my other two wide receivers mostly disappointed as Landry was awful and Moncrief didn’t do anything spectacular. Take note that Landry’s targets have dropped dramatically from what we were seeing in the first 4 weeks. Dolphins are relying much more on the run. At tight end, Rudolph had a touchdown but it was his only catch of the game, which was somewhat disappointing. The Vikings looked like they were throwing a wide receiver screen every other play, which skyrocketed the targets to Stefon Diggs. Antonio Gates was my other tight end pick which definitely went well as he put up 18.5 DK points. I also mentioned Lance Kendricks who was only $2,900 and super low owned. He had 7 catches for 90 yards for 16 DK points. Had he scored a touchdown he would’ve had a monster game. My tournament mention at defense was the Packers and they did have 2 sacks and 2 interceptions, but gave up a ton of points to the Colts and only scored 5 DK points.
On to bigger and better things in Week 10. Here we go.
TEN - Marcus Mariota ($5700) - Mariota is at home this week in a high scoring game vs the Packers and with the implied over/under at 49.5, it’s the third highest on the slate. The Packers are much better against the run over the season, but they haven’t been the same the last few weeks so the Titans should be able to move the ball here. Mariota possesses an extremely high ceiling at his price tag, scoring near 30 DK points 3 times already this season. Also, think about pairing him up with Rishard Matthews as the Packers are near the bottom in covering a team’s #1 receiver, which it’s clear Matthews is right now (besides Walker) with 7, 4, and 10 targets in the last three weeks scoring 3 touchdowns over his last two games. A very cheap stack that would allow you to roster the high priced running backs this week.
PIT – Ben Roethlisberger ($6800) – Roethlisberger at home is a heck of a lot better than when he’s on the road, especially when he comes back from injury like last week. This week he’s at home and facing a Cowboys team that should be able to score some points, forcing the Steelers to follow suit. The Cowboys rank 17th in pass defense DVOA so they’re certainly not a defense that should cause problems to the Steelers. The only worry is the slow pace, grind it out style of the Cowboys, but this game does have the highest implied over/under at 50.5 points. Touchdowns to be had by all, hopefully.
NE - Tom Brady ($7400) – The Patriots are facing the Seattle defense that everybody avoids, but when it’s Tom Brady I’m not too concerned. The Seahawks excel at stopping physical outside receivers, which is the exact opposite of how the Patriots thrive. The Seahawks have always struggled with inside pass catchers, which is why I see Gronk and Edelman as solid low owned plays this week. The Patriots have the second highest team total (behind the Cardinals who are facing the laughable 49ers) so Vegas expects them to be able to move the ball and score a lot. The Bills also just put on a clinic last week against this defense and the Patriots are certainly a better unit than them. Mad Tom Brady is still a thing right?
Other quarterbacks I like include Jay Cutler, Trevor Siemian and Aaron Rodgers.
Obvious chalk play here is David Johnson so I won’t mention him below. Just know he’s going to be extremely high owned and for good reason against the 49ers defense.
SD – Melvin Gordon ($7100) – Everybody is going to be on David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott as they have fantastic matchups this week. This should leave Melvin Gordon and Jay Ajayi as much lower owned than they would normally be and could be a great pivot if Elliott or Johnson fails to put up numbers. Gordon is a home favorite this week versus a Miami team that ranks 16th in rush defense DVOA and give up the third highest yards per carry at 4.6. They’ve also allowed the second most runs of 20+ yards so Gordon certainly has a great matchup himself. We all know how great this dude has been on DraftKings so look for him to continue that this week.
MIA - Jay Ajayi ($7000) – Where in the world did this guy come from? We all wrote him off after the first few games and he’s certainly proved us wrong with three straight impressive games. The Dolphins certainly trust him as they’ve handed it to him 25, 28 and 24 times the past three games and he’s produced with 6.7 ypc. Ajayi travels to San Diego this week which isn’t ideal, but it’s certainly a matchup he can exploit. The Chargers are 19th against the rush in DVOA and have allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the league at 13. They’re also much better against the past so look for the Dolphins to run the rock once again.
If you’re looking for salary, there’s nobody better this week than Chris Ivory at $3400. He’s strictly a deep tournament play that could easily 3x his salary and possibly more. Last week, under a new offensive coordinator, the Jaguars went to a more balanced offense and Ivory was the beneficiary of that switch. He played on 34 snaps (Yeldon played 43) but Ivory out-touched him 19-12 thanks to his 18 carries for 107 yards. Ivory should be the feature back once again and get all of the goal line work as well at home against a Texans team that is much worse against the rush. The Texans rank 28th in rush defense DVOA and give up the 8th most ypc and touchdowns to running backs. Hopefully the Jaguars realize that Bortles throwing 40 times is an awful idea against the Texans pass defense.
Other running backs I like include LeVeon Bell, Matt Forte, TJ Yeldon and Mark Ingram.
ATL – Julio Jones ($9500) – When someone is on DraftKings creating lineups and they go to receiver, they see Julio Jones going against a big red 8 when they look at the matchup. Then they see Mike Evans is $500 cheaper and see a bright green 32 with his matchup. Wonder who they’re going to choose? Evans is certainly a great option this week as well as Antonio Brown, but when Julio Jones is going to be lower owned than both I’m going to roster him. The Falcons do travel to Philadelphia, but the Giants just lit them up last week and I expect the matchup-proof Julio to do the same. If Evans or Brown bust, while Julio lights it up (which could certainly happen) you’d be sitting real pretty come Sunday night. Did I mention he’s scored 50 DK points in a single game this season?
DEN - Demaryius Thomas - ($6700) – Thomas has seen 10 targets in every one of his last 4 games, but has yet to bust out for a big game this season. This could be the week it happens when he faces a New Orleans team that is near the bottom in every defensive measure. I love the volume he’s been getting and a lot of people are still disappointed with him this season. Thomas could be in for a big week.
– Patterson has come on for the Vikings in the past few weeks. He’s seen 6 targets a game over his last 6 games with 8 in his previous game under a new OC. Pat Shurmur is now the OC there and after watching that game it’s clear what sort of offense he’s going to run there with that awful offensive line. They ran an absurd amount of wide receiver screens and quick passes, which led to Diggs and Patterson combining for 22 targets. Patterson is a big play waiting to happen and with two touchdowns already on the season, he can easily break one of these screens for a long touchdown like we saw his rookie season several times. He’s a deep tournament play only, but one that could provide some high upside with minimal salary.
Other wide receivers I like include Stefon Diggs, Jordan Matthews, Sterling Shephard and Kenny Britt.
LA- Lance Kendricks - ($3000) – I mentioned Kendricks last week and used him in a lot of my lineups when he caught 7 balls for 90 yards. If he would’ve had a touchdown, I think it would’ve caught a lot more of people’s attention, but he didn’t so he should be decently low owned again this week. He has another solid matchup against the Jets who are susceptible in the air to say the least. They rank 30th in pass defense DVOA and Keenum should be throwing the ball often given they’re extremely stout against the run. Kendricks has now seen 8, 9 and 12 targets in his last three games.
PHI - Zach Ertz ($3700) - I think Antonio Gates is going to be another chalk option this week at tight end, so if you’re looking to pivot from him in tournaments you could look to Ertz who is $200 cheaper going against the Falcons who struggle on defense. They rank 27th in DK points to tight ends and Ertz just saw a season high in targets with 8. He could finally be completely healthy and ready to have a big second half of the season like he did a year ago.
Other tight ends I like include Antonio Gates and Tyler Eifert.
Arizona Cardinals ($3700) - A lot of people will be rostering the Texans since they’re facing the Jaguars turnover prone quarterback, but I’ll be looking to the Cardinals this week. At $200 cheaper, they’re playing at home vs a 49ers team that can turn it over just as often. The last time the Cardinals faced this team, they got 7 sacks and put up 15 DK points. I realize that was with Gabbert at the helm, but that doesn’t fix the offensive line completely. They’re still going to put a ton of pressure on Kaepernick and with a stud secondary, I wouldn’t be shocked to see multiple interceptions.
LA Rams ($2900) - The Rams are a cheaper option I like this week as they’re facing a New York Jets offense that just isn’t very good. As of right now it looks like Fitzpatrick will start for the Jets, which doesn’t scare me in the slightest since he’s nearly guaranteed to throw at least one pick. The Rams D/ST has scored 6 and 9 points in their last two games, but do have two games this season with 12, 13 and 17 points so the upside is there. They got 5 sacks on Cam Newton last week and their D line looked absolutely dominant with Aaron Donald in the middle.
Thanks again and follow me on Twitter! @Keagan28