Hello DFS'ers! Hopefully y'all enjoyed our new addition to the team, the DFS Accountant, and his DFS strategy piece yesterday. Moving forward he will provide a ton of insight on how to come out on top in DFS games. Our Friday piece hopefully serves as the "cherry on top", taking the insight from the Thursday writeup and constructing a pair of lineups - one for each major host - to be able to take down the big prizes. In both cases we construct lineups in larger GPP contests. Keep that in mind. So without further ado...
This week we are rolling into the $1K Sunday NFL Mini Squib ($1 entry, single entry). Let's take a look at what we come up with based on our rankings and relative values.
Kicker: Always like to get this out of the way. Just scroll to the bottom and find a cheap guy that has a decent enough matchup. Weather isn't of concern now, either. Wil Lutz ($4,500) beat out a pair of veteran kickers for the job in New Orleans. Expect plenty of scoring again against the Giants. Easy peasy.
Defense: Same deal here, scroll to the bottom and find an "el cheapo" with a solid matchup. This is a spot we can upgrade at the end if we have some leftover coin. For now, we'll ink the Patriots ($4,500) in their home opener against division rivals. Our #4 ranked DEF this week, so good value here.
Tight End: Super thin position this year, although TEs enjoyed quite a productive Week 1. The guy we're looking hard at here and willing to pay a semi-premium on is Delanie Walker ($6,600). He's a full $1k cheaper than the likes of Greg Olsen and is our #2 TE in PPR this week. Remember, FanDuel only offers 0.5 PPR so we are leaning a little more on scoring potential here.
Running Back: Given the 0.5-PPR, it's not like we can find a value RB at a super-cheap price. We have to pump up our budget for RB a little. Still, we're looking for an economical option with a good chance at finding the end zone. To us, T.J. Yeldon ($6,500)represents excellent value given Chris Ivory's absence and the Chargers' complete inability to stop the run.
Wide Receiver: The NFL has turned into a passing league, like you didn't know that. Having a sure-fire #1 wideout in daily fantasy is super important. You need a guy that will drop 25 without question. The biggest names (OBJ, Julio, Antonio) are all in the $9k and up range. That's crazy. You can get a guy who'll see the same volume of targets (if not more) in Amari Cooper at just $7,900. He's our #1 WR this week so we'll put our money where our mouth is.
Quarterback: We subscribe to the "draft QB late" mentality in redraft leagues, and the same theme carries over to DFS. That is, you don't need to spend big to get production. Find the matchup that is the most favorable and go from there. In this case, after seeing what Derek Carr did to the Saints, we will opt for Eli Manning ($8,100).
Value WR: Now that the bulk of our team is filled out (only 2 WR and a RB yet to fill), it's time to go bargain hunting. With 3 required WRs, it's here where we need to maximize value. Here we are going to throw a slider when the batter is expecting the fastball. No curves here. OK, enough with the baseball references. We are just going to stack Victor Cruz ($5,700) on Eli instead of going with OBJ or even Sterling Shepard who are obviously more expensive. Kind of a make-or-break pick here but this is how you win bigger contests. And now we have $8,100 per player to round out the final two.
Running Back: So last season DeAngelo Williams absolutely torched the Bengals and all signs point to him doing the same this time around. The Bengals surrendered over 5 ypc on the ground last week and D-Will looks fresh, spry, and ready for another 100+ yard, multiple score day. At just $7,600, he allows us to splurge with our final WR slot.
Wide Receiver: Going to bank on the NOS/NYG game having fireworks yet again. Brandin Cooks ($8,400) gives us a piece of the Saints' passing game pie and leaves us with no cash left.
QB: Manning ($8,100)
RB: DeAngelo Williams ($7,600)
RB: Yeldon ($6,500)
WR: Cooks ($8,400)
WR: Cooper ($7,900)
WR: Cruz ($5,700)
TE: Walker ($6,600)
PK: Lutz ($4,500)
DEF: NEP ($4,500)
We are entering the $1 NFL $100 First Down ($100,000 Guaranteed, up to 117k entrants). This one will require some luck, we admit. We will employ a "triple stack" in this one (QB, WR, WR) from a contest we're fairly sure will feature a ton of scoring. It's worked in the past for us.
Defense: We'll start here as we always value-shop at DEF. This'll open things up more for us down the road. In terms of DK pricing we like the Cowboys. We have them as our #8 DEF this week. The Redskins simply can't run the ball and we're thinking the Boys throw the kitchen sink at Kirk Cousins. This matchup is always wild so spending $2,400 on a top-10 is a good start.
Tight End: Remember, full PPR in DraftKings. So looking at Delanie Walker and his crazy $4,500 price tag has us clicking on him quicker than we can even think. Done.
Running Back: Value, value, value. T.J. Yeldon ($4,700) against the Chargers, who gave up the 3rd-most points to RBs last week, screams value.
Running Back: Atlanta can't stop the run, Oakland looked dominant on the ground, Latavius Murray ($5,700) sounds good.
QB / WR / WR Stack: Gonna follow the money, folks. Biggest o/u on the board is (not surprisingly) the NOS/NYG game. That said, Drew Brees (and therefore Cooks and Snead) is just going to cost too much. Next up per Vegas lines is the TBB/ARI contest. We already liked the Arizona offense to rebound big time after losing to the Pats, so this falls in line with our triple-stack theory this week. Going with Carson Palmer (just $6,900), Larry Fitzgerald ($6,400) and Michael Floyd ($5,900). If the Cards go crazy through the air we will have a solid chance at cashing in this contest.
Running Back: We're looking at just over $6k each for 3 remaining spots, so we want to be smart with this pick for sure. Gonna go with the numbers yet again and plug Rashad Jennings ($5,600) in. The Saints simply can't stop the run and we're thinking the Giants may try to control the game with Jennings, trying to keep Brees & Company off the field. A decent bargain in PPR.
Wide Receiver: In conjunction with running the ball, the Giants offense will likely utilize shorter routes to keep the chains moving against the weak Saints defense. We like Sterling Shepard ($5,200) especially in full PPR formats, because of this. Plus we just want another part of the NOS/NYG pie.
Flex: We're left with $7,400. Scanning through who's available, we find our #1 PPR RB Lamar Miller ($7,200) waving his hands around saying "ME ME ME!". Ok, Lamar, you're in.
QB: Palmer ($6,900)
RB: L. Murray ($5,700)
RB: Jennings ($5,600)
WR: Fitzgerald ($6,400)
WR: Floyd ($5,900)
WR: Shepard ($5,200)
TE: Walker ($4,500)
Flex: L. Miller ($7,200)
DEF: Dallas ($2,400)